Page 37 · Module 01, Think Like a Strategist · this screen continues that page
All 108 frameworksSecond Order Thinking
A decision seems obviously good but you're worried about unintended consequences.
The prompt
Copy & paste readyLabelsReplace theseSwap the role below
Pro tip, from the book
Don't just apply this to risky decisions. Good decisions often have harmful second-order effects that nobody maps because everyone is celebrating the first-order win.
Who should run this prompt
Module role profileWho should reason through this problem? The quality of your thinking is shaped by whose lens you borrow. A strategist and a risk analyst look at the same problem and see completely different things — both useful, both necessary. Before you prompt, choose who you need in the room. These profiles give you six internal perspectives and four outside views that challenge your assumptions before you commit to them.
Choose any role to drop it into the prompt above. Only the highlighted opening clause changes — the rest of the prompt stays exactly as printed.
◆◆◆◆◆ → ◆ seniority, board level down to specialist◈ outside the organisation
How to make any role sharper
- Add years of experience: "...with 15 years in enterprise SaaS" produces different depth than just the title.
- Add what they care most about: "You care most about [X]" shapes every word of the output.
- Add their communication style: "Be direct. Flag risks first. No jargon." changes the tone entirely.
Use this when
The problem it solvesEveryone agrees on the first-level outcome but nobody is thinking about what that outcome causes next.
How the framework works
From the printed pageFirst-order thinking asks: what happens if I do this? Second-order thinking asks: and then what? And then what after that? Most bad decisions look good at the first level. The consequences that hurt you are almost always second or third order. Howard Marks popularised this in investing. It applies to every business decision.
The method, in 7 moves
Do these in orderDefine your proposed action or decision clearly.
Ask AI to map first, second, and third order consequences.
Pay special attention to negative effects of positive first-order outcomes.
Use the output to adjust the plan before committing resources. What happens after what happens next?
Have I considered how the people affected by this decision will respond and adapt, not just the immediate outcome?
Does my plan account for second-order effects 6 to 12 months out, not just next quarter?
Am I solving the visible symptom or the underlying cause that will keep producing symptoms? QUICK CHECK
Where the framework comes from
Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital — The Most Important Thing, 2011
Pairs well with
As printed with this frameworkModule 01 — Think Like a Strategist
Learn to work with AI. Then learn to think. Both are non-negotiable.
13 frameworks, printed on pages 22–47.
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