Page 192 · Module 08, Decide with Confidence · this screen continues that page
All 108 frameworksRisk Matrix
See your risks clearly and know which ones actually deserve your attention
The prompt
Copy & paste readyLabelsReplace theseSwap the role below
Pro tip, from the book
The most dangerous risks are not the ones scored highest, they are the ones missing from the list entirely. After scoring, ask AI: 'What risk have I not considered that regularly kills businesses at my stage?' Black swan events, regulatory changes, and key person dependencies are consistently the most underestimated categories.
Who should run this prompt
Module role profileWho should stress-test your most important decisions? Most bad decisions were not obviously bad at the time — they had a good first-order case and a hidden second-order cost. The roles on this page are designed to surface what you cannot see from inside your own reasoning. Some will challenge your logic. Some will challenge your assumptions. One will challenge whether you are even asking the right question.
Choose any role to drop it into the prompt above. Only the highlighted opening clause changes — the rest of the prompt stays exactly as printed.
◆◆◆◆◆ → ◆ seniority, board level down to specialist◈ outside the organisation
How to make any role sharper
- Add years of experience: "...with 15 years in enterprise SaaS" produces different depth than just the title.
- Add what they care most about: "You care most about [X]" shapes every word of the output.
- Add their communication style: "Be direct. Flag risks first. No jargon." changes the tone entirely.
Use this when
The problem it solvesYou have a vague sense that things could go wrong but no clear view of which risks matter most. You either worry about everything equally or dismiss risks until they become crises. Risk management feels either overwhelming or performative.
How the framework works
From the printed pageThe Risk Matrix is an ISO 31000-based tool that plots risks on two dimensions: Likelihood (how probable is this risk?) and Impact (how severe would the consequences be?). Each risk is scored and placed in a 3×3 or 5×5 grid. High likelihood + high impact = immediate priority. Low likelihood + low impact = monitor or accept. The matrix forces explicit ranking and prevents the two most common risk management failures: treating all risks equally, or ignoring low-probability, high-impact risks because they seem unlikely.
The method, in four moves
Do these in orderGenerate a comprehensive risk list first before scoring. Scoring before listing creates anchoring bias.
Include strategic, operational, financial, people, and external risk categories.
For every high-priority risk, define a mitigation and an owner risks without owners are not managed.
Review the matrix quarterly risk profiles change as the business evolves. A pandemic, a key-person departure, a lawsuit - all low likelihood, all capable of ending the business. The matrix exists precisely to stop you from dismissing these as unlikely and forgetting them. Low probability earns a lighter watch, never a blind spot. Low-Likelihood Isn't Low-Stakes
Where the framework comes from
ISO 31000 Risk Management framework · Risk matrix methodology widely used
Pairs well with
As printed with this frameworkModule 08 — Decide with Confidence
Make better decisions faster, with less regret.
10 frameworks, printed on pages 185–204.
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