Page 204 · Module 08, Decide with Confidence · this screen continues that page
All 108 frameworksExpected Value Framework
You are choosing between options that each have uncertain outcomes. Your gut says one
The prompt
Copy & paste readyLabelsReplace theseSwap the role below
Pro tip, from the book
The '100 times' question at the end is the most clarifying. EV is a long-run average, it tells you which option wins if you could repeat the decision many times. For irreversible, once- in-a-career decisions, EV is necessary but not sufficient. Pair it with worst-case analysis: can you survive the worst outcome of the highest-EV option? If yes, take it. If no, reconsider.
Who should run this prompt
Module role profileWho should stress-test your most important decisions? Most bad decisions were not obviously bad at the time — they had a good first-order case and a hidden second-order cost. The roles on this page are designed to surface what you cannot see from inside your own reasoning. Some will challenge your logic. Some will challenge your assumptions. One will challenge whether you are even asking the right question.
Choose any role to drop it into the prompt above. Only the highlighted opening clause changes — the rest of the prompt stays exactly as printed.
◆◆◆◆◆ → ◆ seniority, board level down to specialist◈ outside the organisation
How to make any role sharper
- Add years of experience: "...with 15 years in enterprise SaaS" produces different depth than just the title.
- Add what they care most about: "You care most about [X]" shapes every word of the output.
- Add their communication style: "Be direct. Flag risks first. No jargon." changes the tone entirely.
Use this when
The problem it solvesthing, the numbers might say another. You want to make the call on evidence, not instinct alone but you're not sure how to quantify a decision that has multiple possible outcomes.
How the framework works
From the printed pageExpected Value (EV) is a core concept from probability theory and decision science. EV = the sum of (probability of each outcome × value of each outcome). A decision with a 30% chance of gaining 1,000 and a 70% chance of gaining 100 has an EV of 370. The power of EV is that it forces you to explicitly state your probability estimates and outcome values making implicit assumptions explicit and comparable. Combined with Decision Trees (8.9), EV becomes the mathematical backbone of structured decision- making under uncertainty.
The method, in four moves
Do these in orderList all possible outcomes for each option, not just the best and worst case.
Assign probabilities that sum to 100% across all outcomes for each option.
Include non-financial values by converting them to a common unit (time, reputation points, strategic value score).
EV is a long-run average, for one-time irreversible decisions, also consider the worst case explicitly. Make decisions with the math, not just the feeling A high expected value means nothing if the downside bankrupts you. EV is a long-run average for a one-time irreversible bet, the worst case matters more than the math. EV Ignores Ruin
Where the framework comes from
Probability theory — Expected Value applied to business decisions
Pairs well with
As printed with this frameworkModule 08 — Decide with Confidence
Make better decisions faster, with less regret.
10 frameworks, printed on pages 185–204.
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