Page 188 · Module 08, Decide with Confidence · this screen continues that page
All 108 frameworksPre-Mortem Analysis
Imagine it already failed then figure out why
The prompt
Copy & paste readyLabelsReplace theseSwap the role below
Pro tip, from the book
The Pre-Mortem's greatest value is not the list of failure modes — it is the social permission it creates for people to raise concerns. In a team that is committed to a plan, raising doubts feels disloyal. The Pre-Mortem makes it the job. Run it before every significant commitment and watch concerns surface that would have stayed silent until they became problems.
Who should run this prompt
Module role profileWho should stress-test your most important decisions? Most bad decisions were not obviously bad at the time — they had a good first-order case and a hidden second-order cost. The roles on this page are designed to surface what you cannot see from inside your own reasoning. Some will challenge your logic. Some will challenge your assumptions. One will challenge whether you are even asking the right question.
Choose any role to drop it into the prompt above. Only the highlighted opening clause changes — the rest of the prompt stays exactly as printed.
◆◆◆◆◆ → ◆ seniority, board level down to specialist◈ outside the organisation
How to make any role sharper
- Add years of experience: "...with 15 years in enterprise SaaS" produces different depth than just the title.
- Add what they care most about: "You care most about [X]" shapes every word of the output.
- Add their communication style: "Be direct. Flag risks first. No jargon." changes the tone entirely.
Use this when
The problem it solvesYou are about to launch something, make a major hire, or commit significant resources and you want to stress-test it before you commit. But your team is optimistic and no one is raising the hard questions.
How the framework works
From the printed pageThe Pre-Mortem was developed by psychologist Gary Klein as an antidote to groupthink and planning optimism. Before a project begins, the team imagines it is one year in the future and the project has failed spectacularly. Each person writes down every reason they can think of for why it failed. The group then reviews all reasons and identifies the most likely and most serious failure modes. Unlike a risk register (which asks 'what could go wrong?'), the Pre-Mortem asks 'what did go wrong?' the past tense activates a different and more honest mode of thinking.
The method, in four moves
Do these in orderRun the Pre-Mortem in writing first, verbal Pre-Mortems are dominated by the loudest voice.
Separate generation from evaluation, collect all failure reasons before discussing any of them.
Focus on the top 3 most likely and most serious failure modes, you cannot mitigate everything.
For each top failure mode, assign a specific owner and a specific prevention action. A pre-mortem that stays a discussion is wasted effort. If the top three failure modes don't end with a named owner and a specific prevention action, you've identified the risks and done nothing to stop them.
Where the framework comes from
Gary Klein, psychologist — Pre-Mortem methodology
Pairs well with
As printed with this frameworkModule 08 — Decide with Confidence
Make better decisions faster, with less regret.
10 frameworks, printed on pages 185–204.
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