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All 108 frameworksScenario Planning
Plan for the futures that haven't happened yet, including the ones you're not expecting
The prompt
Copy & paste readyLabelsReplace theseSwap the role below
Pro tip, from the book
The real value in scenario planning isn't the scenarios, it's the early warning signals. Once you know what each future looks like in its early stages, you know what to watch for. Build a simple 3–5 signal dashboard and review it quarterly. Founders who see change coming are the ones who defined what it would look like before it arrived.
Who should run this prompt
Module role profileWho should stress-test your most important decisions? Most bad decisions were not obviously bad at the time — they had a good first-order case and a hidden second-order cost. The roles on this page are designed to surface what you cannot see from inside your own reasoning. Some will challenge your logic. Some will challenge your assumptions. One will challenge whether you are even asking the right question.
Choose any role to drop it into the prompt above. Only the highlighted opening clause changes — the rest of the prompt stays exactly as printed.
◆◆◆◆◆ → ◆ seniority, board level down to specialist◈ outside the organisation
How to make any role sharper
- Add years of experience: "...with 15 years in enterprise SaaS" produces different depth than just the title.
- Add what they care most about: "You care most about [X]" shapes every word of the output.
- Add their communication style: "Be direct. Flag risks first. No jargon." changes the tone entirely.
Use this when
The problem it solvesYou plan for one future: the one you expect. When the market shifts, a competitor moves, or an external event disrupts your assumptions, you are caught without a contingency. You are not naive, you just haven't built the habit of planning for multiple futures.
How the framework works
From the printed pageScenario Planning was pioneered by Herman Kahn at the RAND Corporation and developed into a strategic tool by the Shell Oil planning team in the 1970s, most famously used to prepare for the 1973 oil crisis before it happened. The method builds three to four internally consistent, plausible futures based on the key uncertainties in your environment. You then stress-test your strategy against each scenario. The goal is not to predict which future will happen, it is to build a strategy that is robust across multiple futures and to identify the early signals that tell you which future is emerging.
The method, in four moves
Do these in orderIdentify your two most critical and most uncertain variables, these become the axes of your scenario matrix.
Build scenarios that are plausible, distinct, and internally consistent not best/worst/base.
Name each scenario memorably, it makes them easier to reference in team conversations.
Define the early warning signals for each scenario before you need them. A named scenario is worth nothing without a defined trigger. If "Downturn" and "Boom" don't come with the specific early signals that tell you which one is arriving, you've built a story exercise, not a strategy tool.
Where the framework comes from
Herman Kahn, RAND Corporation · Shell Oil planning team, 1970s
Pairs well with
As printed with this frameworkModule 08 — Decide with Confidence
Make better decisions faster, with less regret.
10 frameworks, printed on pages 185–204.
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