Page 217 · Module 09, Finance & Metrics · this screen continues that page
All 108 frameworks3-Scenario Financial Model
You have a single financial plan that assumes everything goes roughly as expected. When
The prompt
Copy & paste readyLabelsReplace theseSwap the role below
Pro tip, from the book
The most important output from scenario modelling is the Bear Case decision playbook. Define now - before you need it - what you will cut first, what you will protect at all costs, and at what runway level you take action. Leaders who make these decisions in advance act calmly when the moment arrives. Leaders who haven't made them in advance make poor decisions under pressure.
Who should run this prompt
Module role profileWho should review your numbers and financial narrative? Numbers do not lie — but they can mislead when read through the wrong lens. A CFO and an investor look at the same P&L and ask completely different questions. A customer's finance team looks at your pricing and asks a question neither of them thought of. Use this page to choose who is in the room before you present, model, or decide based on your financial data.
Choose any role to drop it into the prompt above. Only the highlighted opening clause changes — the rest of the prompt stays exactly as printed.
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- Add years of experience: "...with 15 years in enterprise SaaS" produces different depth than just the title.
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Use this when
The problem it solvesreality diverges and it always does , you have no framework for how to respond. Every deviation triggers a re-plan from scratch.
How the framework works
From the printed pageThe 3-Scenario Financial Model is a planning practice used by CFOs and serious operators to replace single-point forecasting with range forecasting. The three scenarios are: Base Case (most likely trajectory - what you genuinely expect), Bull Case (everything works - best realistic outcome, not fantasy), and Bear Case (things go worse than expected - what you plan for but hope doesn't happen). The model forces you to define the key drivers of each scenario and the decision triggers, what happens in Month 3 that tells you which scenario you're in, and what you do about it.
The method, in four moves
Do these in orderBuild the model around 3–5 key drivers, not 50 line items. Key drivers are the variables that most affect the outcome.
Define scenario triggers before you need them, what metric, at what level, confirms each scenario?
The Bear Case must be survivable, if it would kill the company, your base case planning is too aggressive.
Share all three scenarios with your board or key investors, single-scenario plans erode trust when they miss. Plan for the future you want and the two you might get instead If your Bear Case would kill the company, you don't have a Bear Case, you have a Base Case wearing a disguise. Rebuild it until it's survivable, or the exercise is theater.
Where the framework comes from
CFO best practice — 3-scenario modelling widely used in venture-backed companies
Pairs well with
As printed with this frameworkModule 09 — Finance & Metrics
Know your numbers. Own your narrative.
9 frameworks, printed on pages 206–223.
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